FOREX UPDATE
USD TECHNICAL FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 29th, 2008
EURO USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 29th, 2008
Rate crosses the 50 bar MA with higher volume; more losses on the way but move into the stops finds no one home; selling pressure likely not big enough now to move below the 1.5600 area easily. Support at 1.5550 likely to hold on further weakness.
Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area with stops said to be out of range above around the 1.5850 area. Traders note that the rate feels “heavy” to start the week and warn of a potential overhang of stale longs; which may have been cleared on today’s dip to 1.5600. Stops under the 1.5700 area were in size overnight and volume was good.
JPY USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 29th, 2008
Rate powers through offers at the 104.50 area and stops drive the rate to next resistance at the 104.80 area; fails at the highs. After US news is out this morning, expect a rally into the 105.10/20 area to be sold; we opened an aggressive short in that area today. Caution on the potential top is the rate closing over the 100 bar MA today.
COT data showing an increase of net JPY longs making the upside potential for the USD a bit higher in my view; but that was likely the pop this morning. Stops the other side of 104.50 were in size suggesting that speculators got heavily short near current market pricing as 104.50 area is in range with the recent weekly highs
USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 28th, 2008
The USD enjoyed a day of higher pricing but failed to break into any new areas of S/R against the majors. For the most part the Greenback remained inside established ranges but is showing signs of bottoming and very well may rally the next 24 hours. Today’s US data was a mixed bag and traders note that across the board the USD attracted a fairly large amount of bids relative to the volume on the day.
EURO USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 28th, 2008
Rate holds inside range so far for the day but is evidently starting the week a bit softer. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area with stops said to be out of range above around the 1.5850 area. Traders note that the rate feels “heavy” to start the week and warn of a potential overhang of stale longs.
Stops under the 1.5700 area are said to be in size and bids ahead are from larger names, Lack of volume a concern but no trouble attracting selling pressure today. Look for model and momentum accounts to be on the bid the next 24 hours and should that be the case the rate is due for a break lower.
JPY USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 28th, 2008
Late rally shows upside bias still working. Rally into the 104.80 area is the best potential short area in my view. COT data showing an increase of net JPY longs making the upside potential for the USD a bit higher in my view. Stops above the 104.10/20 area likely to be in size and the question is how big are the offers ahead of 104.40? Stops the other side of 104.50 said to be in size suggesting that speculators got heavily short near current market pricing as 104.50 area is in range with the recent weekly highs.
This week’s data may support near-term as the USD has had a lot of bad press the past quarter and has managed a firm start to the year; perhaps the Yen has a further downside correction to go before the USD bears are again out in force
EURO USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Irate rallies on stops but then falls back, close over the 50 bar MA likely to draw buyers but offers are absorbing so far. Higher Oil prices are underpinning and the first correction in Oil prices will likely take the EURO with it. “Buy on dips” mentality active which means stops will be rolled up in range and the potential for a stop-driven rally is high.
Look for support on dips near the 1.5550 area. Longs likely to have rolled up stops under the 1.5650 today so volatility possible. Looking for selling pressure at the London fix today.
JPY USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 22nd, 2008
Rate is firming up and the late sellers are likely in. Traders not model accounts buying USD in Asia so likely their stops will drive trade off the lows and into the 103.70 area near-term.
Upside will continue to be labored but a retracement is coming. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame.
Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold.
USD DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS FOR DAY TRADERS
Posted May 22nd, 2008
The Greenback opens New York mixed this morning after a solid two-way overnight session saw the majors consolidating recent strength. Initially starting flat in Asia the USD had some early pressure as follow-on selling from a dismal stock market Wednesday leaked into Asian trade. Bouncing back to post early highs at the start of European trade the USD found light stops in most pairs as late shorts were caught wrong-footed in Europe.
USD Forex Analysis and Technical Forex Trading Tips
Posted May 21st, 2008
The USD continues to weaken in Wednesday’s trade; starting softer in Asia in line with weaker equities pricing. Most of the Asian stock markets were lower overnight in sympathy with the losses seen in the DJIA Tuesday traders say; higher oil prices also dragging on the USD and lifting EURO. Overnight news was light but significant; the BOE MPC minutes showed an 8-1 split to leave rates unchanged with Blanchflower again voting for a 25 BP cut.
Euro USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders
Posted May 21st, 2008
IFO rallies the pair higher but tech resistance at 1.5770/80 area holds to start New York. Close over the 50 bar MA likely to draw buyers but offers are absorbing so far. Overnight news suggests that confidence in the economy is continuing to grow and combined with higher Oil prices the rate is likely to be bought on dips. Look for support on dips near the 1.5550 area.
Longs likely to have rolled up stops under the 1.5580 area so volatility possible. The rate is setting up for a potential upside recovery. Bounce back from dip under the 1.5500 handle suggests active buying on dips; traders say lots of official and sovereign names seen buying dips. I think the recovery has some legs this time but the late long may have made his move today.
Trading History For The Forex Portfolio:
The table below gives a snapshot of 12 months of trades, providing a picture of trading frequency, duration and results.
| Symbol | Entry Date | Exit Date | Entry | Exit | % Gain | |
| Short | AUDJPY | 13-Feb-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 93.9405 | 89.3304 | 4.91% |
| Short | AUDJPY | 1-Mar-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 92.9584 | 89.3304 | 3.90% |
| Long | CHFAUD | 20-Feb-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 1.0317 | 1.0602 | 2.76% |
| Long | CHFSGD | 23-Feb-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 1.2408 | 1.2509 | 0.81% |
| Short | CHFUSD | 19-Dec-06 | 6-Mar-07 | 0.8179 | 0.8194 | -0.18% |
| Short | CHFUSD | 4-Jan-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 0.8144 | 0.8194 | -0.62% |
| Short | EURHKD | 19-Dec-06 | 6-Mar-07 | 10.1789 | 10.2414 | -0.61% |
| Short | EURHKD | 4-Jan-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 10.2317 | 10.2414 | -0.09% |
| Short | EURUSD | 19-Dec-06 | 6-Mar-07 | 1.3087 | 1.3110 | -0.18% |
| Short | EURUSD | 4-Jan-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 1.3136 | 1.3110 | 0.20% |
| Short | GBPSGD | 5-Feb-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 3.0118 | 2.9430 | 2.28% |
| Short | SGDUSD | 20-Dec-06 | 6-Mar-07 | 0.6489 | 0.6541 | -0.80% |
| Short | SGDUSD | 15-Jan-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 0.6484 | 0.6541 | -0.87% |
| Long | USDDKK | 9-Jan-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 5.7258 | 5.6853 | -0.71% |
| Long | USDEUR | 10-Jan-07 | 6-Mar-07 | 0.7720 | 0.7627 | -1.20% |
| Short | CHFHKD | 18-Dec-06 | 5-Mar-07 | 6.3570 | 6.4351 | -1.23% |
| Short | CHFHKD | 4-Jan-07 | 5-Mar-07 | 6.3412 | 6.4351 | -1.48% |
| Long | USDNOK | 8-Jan-07 | 14-Feb-07 | 6.3651 | 6.1956 | -2.66% |
| Short | AUDJPY | 8-Feb-07 | 8-Feb-07 | 93.9155 | 94.1898 | -0.29% |
| Short | NZDCHF | 26-Jan-07 | 5-Feb-07 | 0.8690 | 0.8522 | 1.93% |
| Short | CHFSGD | 18-Dec-06 | 23-Jan-07 | 1.2622 | 1.2336 | 2.27% |
| Short | GBPSGD | 18-Dec-06 | 2-Jan-07 | 3.0071 | 3.0101 | -0.10% |
| Short | GBPHKD | 19-Dec-06 | 28-Dec-06 | 15.1411 | 15.2374 | -0.64% |
| Long | AUDJPY | 21-Apr-06 | 18-Dec-06 | 86.8867 | 92.1397 | 6.05% |
| Long | EURHKD | 15-Nov-06 | 18-Dec-06 | 9.9792 | 10.1593 | 1.81% |
| Long | CHFSGD | 23-Nov-06 | 11-Dec-06 | 1.2670 | 1.2801 | 1.03% |
| Short | USDDKK | 4-Dec-06 | 6-Dec-06 | 5.5857 | 5.6071 | -0.38% |
| Short | GBPHKD | 22-Aug-06 | 24-Nov-06 | 14.7066 | 14.9572 | -1.70% |
| Short | SGDUSD | 26-May-06 | 24-Nov-06 | 0.6329 | 0.6453 | -1.95% |
| Long | USDDKK | 14-Jun-06 | 23-Nov-06 | 5.9434 | 5.7564 | -3.15% |
| Long | USDEUR | 14-Jun-06 | 23-Nov-06 | 0.7971 | 0.7720 | -3.15% |
| Long | USDNOK | 9-Jun-06 | 10-Nov-06 | 6.1971 | 6.3948 | 3.19% |
| Long | NZDGBP | 5-Jul-06 | 9-Oct-06 | 0.3303 | 0.3511 | 6.28% |
| Long | NZDGBP | 11-Jul-06 | 9-Oct-06 | 0.3326 | 0.3511 | 5.55% |
| Long | NZDCHF | 5-Jul-06 | 4-Sep-06 | 0.7478 | 0.8031 | 7.39% |
| Long | GBPHKD | 7-Aug-06 | 21-Aug-06 | 14.8426 | 14.6259 | -1.46% |
| Short | CHFAUD | 30-Jun-06 | 14-Aug-06 | 1.0929 | 1.0553 | 3.44% |
| Long | EURHKD | 14-Dec-05 | 17-Jul-06 | 9.2910 | 9.8025 | 5.51% |
| Long | NZDCHF | 8-Jun-06 | 28-Jun-06 | 0.7675 | 0.7486 | -2.47% |
| Long | NZDCHF | 23-Jun-06 | 28-Jun-06 | 0.7586 | 0.7486 | -1.33% |
| Long | NZDGBP | 6-Jun-06 | 28-Jun-06 | 0.3376 | 0.3289 | -2.58% |
| Long | NZDGBP | 23-Jun-06 | 28-Jun-06 | 0.3342 | 0.3289 | -1.58% |
| Long | GBPSGD | 23-Mar-06 | 20-Jun-06 | 2.8241 | 2.9377 | 4.02% |
| Long | GBPSGD | 27-Mar-06 | 20-Jun-06 | 2.8251 | 2.9377 | 3.99% |
| Long | CHFSGD | 27-Mar-06 | 19-Jun-06 | 1.2364 | 1.2913 | 4.44% |
| Long | CHFSGD | 13-Apr-06 | 19-Jun-06 | 1.2414 | 1.2913 | 4.02% |
| Long | EURUSD | 14-Dec-05 | 8-Jun-06 | 1.1982 | 1.2741 | 6.34% |
| Long | EURUSD | 11-Jan-06 | 8-Jun-06 | 1.2079 | 1.2741 | 5.49% |
| Long | GBPHKD | 13-Dec-05 | 22-May-06 | 13.7753 | 14.5260 | 5.45% |
| Long | GBPHKD | 16-Jan-06 | 22-May-06 | 13.7717 | 14.5260 | 5.48% |
| Long | GBPHKD | 23-Jan-06 | 22-May-06 | 13.7733 | 14.5260 | 5.46% |
| Long | NZDCHF | 4-May-06 | 9-May-06 | 0.7939 | 0.7736 | -2.55% |
| Long | NZDGBP | 2-May-06 | 8-May-06 | 0.3486 | 0.3429 | -1.64% |
| Short | CHFAUD | 21-Apr-06 | 28-Apr-06 | 1.0568 | 1.0538 | 0.28% |
| Long | USDDKK | 16-Feb-06 | 19-Apr-06 | 6.2847 | 6.0342 | -3.98% |
| Long | USDEUR | 16-Feb-06 | 19-Apr-06 | 0.8418 | 0.8086 | -3.94% |
| Short | USDNOK | 1-Mar-06 | 7-Apr-06 | 6.7287 | 6.4694 | 3.85% |
| Short | USDNOK | 14-Mar-06 | 7-Apr-06 | 6.6438 | 6.4694 | 2.63% |
| Short | NZDCHF | 24-Jan-06 | 22-Mar-06 | 0.8574 | 0.8136 | 5.10% |
The chart below shows recent performance for the TrendSensor Forex Portfolio (green line) vs the S&P 500 Index (red line). Click on the chart to be taken to a detailed performance summary, including key statistics and a log of closed trade performance
